Mongolia’s economy will stagnate in 2017

B.Erdenechimeg

2017-04-13 15:20 GMT+8

World Bank today introduces the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update, the comprehensive review of the region`s economies which is published twice yearly. 

The review was involved 14 countries and Mongolia listed in 10th place at GDP growth projections. 

Country

   GDP growth projections

 

2017

2018

2019

China

6.5

6.3

6.3

Indonesia

5.2

5.3

5.4

Malaysia

4.3

4.5

4.5

Philippines

6.9

6.8

6.8

Thailand

3.2

3.3

3.4

Vietnam

6.3

6.4

6.4

Cambodia

6.9

6.9

6.7

Lao PDR

7

6.8

7.2

Myanmar

6.9

7.2

7.3

Mongolia

-0.2

1.9

8.0

Fiji

3.7

3.5

3.3

Papau New Guinea

3

3.2

3.4

Solomon Islands

3.3

3.0

3.0

Timor Leste

4

5

6

The just-released East Asia and Pacific Economic Update expects the Mongolian economy will stagnate in 2017, as the government restores its debt to sustainable levels, but a modest recovery is expected in 2018.

James Anderson, World Bank`s Country Manager for Mongolia

Chinese economy to continue to slow down gradually, as it rebalances toward consumption and services. China’s growth rate to be 

  • 6.5 percent in 2017,
  • 6.3 percent in 2018, compared with 6.7 percent in 2016. 

In China, growth will continue to moderate, reflecting the impact of the government’s measures to reduce excess capacity and credit expansion. As a result, the report expects activity in the real estate sector to slow down.

The large developing economies in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations will likely expand slightly faster in 2017-18, although for different reasons. The Philippines will benefit from higher public spending on infrastructure, an uptick in private investment, credit expansion, and increased remittances, as growth accelerates to 6.9 percent in both 2017 and 2018. Higher government subsidies, more infrastructure spending and rising exports will push up Malaysia’s economy by 4.3 percent in 2017 and 4.5 percent in 2018.

In Indonesia, credit expansion and higher oil prices will help the economy grow 5.2 percent in 2017, up from 5 percent in 2016. In Vietnam, growth will rise to 6.3 percent in 2017, in line with favorable market sentiment and strong foreign direct investment.

The region’s smaller economies will generally benefit from the continued vitality of their larger neighbors, and some will also benefit from higher commodity prices. Cambodia’s economy will grow 6.9 percent in 2017 and 2018, with higher public spending and the expansion of agriculture and tourism offsetting a drop in the construction and garment sectors. In Myanmar, growth will reach 6.9 percent in 2017 and 7.2 percent in 2018, up from 6.5 percent in 2016, as infrastructure spending increases and structural reforms attract more foreign investment.  

Papua New Guinea will see its economy gradually recover, thanks to a number of new mining and petroleum projects. 

With credit growth remaining high across much of the region, including Vietnam, the Philippines and Lao PDR, the report suggests an emphasis on strengthening regulation and enhancing supervision.

In addition, the report says policy makers can put future economic prospects on a more sustainable path if they take steps to reduce pollution caused by farming, a rising threat amid the intensification of agriculture in the region.

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