According to recent figures, the economy is reviving up; it expanded 6.5% year-on-year in Q3. Growth in the third quarter came on the back of soaring fixed investment, a surge in exports and higher private consumption thanks to a stronger labor market.
In early December, the president vetoed the 2018 budget, which had recently been approved by parliament. Although the IMF gave its backing to the budget following a staff visit in October, the president stated it would prevent the country from meeting its fiscal deficit target, which had been set with the IMF.
However, the Mongolian People’s Party took advantage of its overwhelming majority in parliament to swiftly overturn the veto.
Growth should be sprightly next year thanks to a robust coal industry, which should have positive spillover effects on other sectors, and business confidence that will benefit from continued IMF support. However, the economy will remain vulnerable to commodity price swings and potential political instability. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 3.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in 2019.
Economy data
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
4,377 |
4,598 |
4,165 |
3,999 |
4,044 |
|
12.4 |
13.3 |
12.2 |
11.9 |
12.2 |
|
12.5 |
11.6 |
8.1 |
2.5 |
1.1 |
|
8.2 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
8.0 |
7.9 |
|
-6.8 |
-1.2 |
-3.9 |
-5.0 |
-15.2 |
|
51.3 |
67.3 |
76.5 |
78.1 |
90.3 |
|
18.7 |
24.2 |
12.5 |
-5.5 |
20.2 |
|
14.3 |
10.5 |
12.8 |
6.6 |
1.1 |
|
13.25 |
10.50 |
12.00 |
13.00 |
14.00 |
|
1,378 |
1,660 |
1,888 |
1,993 |
2,488 |
|
1,353 |
1,516 |
1,815 |
1,968 |
2,145 |
|
-43.3 |
-24.1 |
-15.9 |
-8.0 |
-5.7 |
|
-5.4 |
-3.2 |
-1.9 |
-0.9 |
-0.7 |
|
-2.4 |
-2.1 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
|
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.8 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
|
6.7 |
6.4 |
5.2 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
|
-9.1 |
-2.5 |
35.1 |
-19.1 |
5.4 |
|
2.1 |
-5.8 |
-17.5 |
-27.5 |
-11.6 |
|
4.1 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
|
124 |
144 |
172 |
191 |
202 |
According to recent figures, the economy is reviving up; it expanded 6.5% year-on-year in Q3. Growth in the third quarter came on the back of soaring fixed investment, a surge in exports and higher private consumption thanks to a stronger labor market.
In early December, the president vetoed the 2018 budget, which had recently been approved by parliament. Although the IMF gave its backing to the budget following a staff visit in October, the president stated it would prevent the country from meeting its fiscal deficit target, which had been set with the IMF.
However, the Mongolian People’s Party took advantage of its overwhelming majority in parliament to swiftly overturn the veto.
Growth should be sprightly next year thanks to a robust coal industry, which should have positive spillover effects on other sectors, and business confidence that will benefit from continued IMF support. However, the economy will remain vulnerable to commodity price swings and potential political instability. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 3.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in 2019.
Economy data
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2.8 |
2.9 |
2.9 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
|
4,377 |
4,598 |
4,165 |
3,999 |
4,044 |
|
12.4 |
13.3 |
12.2 |
11.9 |
12.2 |
|
12.5 |
11.6 |
8.1 |
2.5 |
1.1 |
|
8.2 |
7.9 |
7.9 |
8.0 |
7.9 |
|
-6.8 |
-1.2 |
-3.9 |
-5.0 |
-15.2 |
|
51.3 |
67.3 |
76.5 |
78.1 |
90.3 |
|
18.7 |
24.2 |
12.5 |
-5.5 |
20.2 |
|
14.3 |
10.5 |
12.8 |
6.6 |
1.1 |
|
13.25 |
10.50 |
12.00 |
13.00 |
14.00 |
|
1,378 |
1,660 |
1,888 |
1,993 |
2,488 |
|
1,353 |
1,516 |
1,815 |
1,968 |
2,145 |
|
-43.3 |
-24.1 |
-15.9 |
-8.0 |
-5.7 |
|
-5.4 |
-3.2 |
-1.9 |
-0.9 |
-0.7 |
|
-2.4 |
-2.1 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
1.6 |
|
4.4 |
4.3 |
5.8 |
4.7 |
4.9 |
|
6.7 |
6.4 |
5.2 |
3.8 |
3.4 |
|
-9.1 |
-2.5 |
35.1 |
-19.1 |
5.4 |
|
2.1 |
-5.8 |
-17.5 |
-27.5 |
-11.6 |
|
4.1 |
2.2 |
1.7 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
|
124 |
144 |
172 |
191 |
202 |