Mongolia Economic Outlook 2018

GoGo.mn

2018-01-08 14:00 GMT+8

According to recent figures, the economy is reviving up; it expanded 6.5% year-on-year in Q3. Growth in the third quarter came on the back of soaring fixed investment, a surge in exports and higher private consumption thanks to a stronger labor market.

In early December, the president vetoed the 2018 budget, which had recently been approved by parliament. Although the IMF gave its backing to the budget following a staff visit in October, the president stated it would prevent the country from meeting its fiscal deficit target, which had been set with the IMF.

However, the Mongolian People’s Party took advantage of its overwhelming majority in parliament to swiftly overturn the veto.

Growth should be sprightly next year thanks to a robust coal industry, which should have positive spillover effects on other sectors, and business confidence that will benefit from continued IMF support. However, the economy will remain vulnerable to commodity price swings and potential political instability. FocusEconomics panelists see growth at 3.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in 2019.

Economy data

 

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Population (million)

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

GDP per capita (USD)

4,377

4,598

4,165

3,999

4,044

GDP (USD bn)

12.4

13.3

12.2

11.9

12.2

Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)

12.5

11.6

8.1

2.5

1.1

Unemployment Rate

8.2

7.9

7.9

8.0

7.9

Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)

-6.8

-1.2

-3.9

-5.0

-15.2

Public Debt (% of GDP)

51.3

67.3

76.5

78.1

90.3

Money (annual variation in %)

18.7

24.2

12.5

-5.5

20.2

Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)

14.3

10.5

12.8

6.6

1.1

Policy Interest Rate (%)

13.25

10.50

12.00

13.00

14.00

Exchange Rate (vs USD)

1,378

1,660

1,888

1,993

2,488

Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)

1,353

1,516

1,815

1,968

2,145

Current Account (% of GDP)

-43.3

-24.1

-15.9

-8.0

-5.7

Current Account Balance (USD bn)

-5.4

-3.2

-1.9

-0.9

-0.7

Trade Balance (USD billion)

-2.4

-2.1

0.5

0.9

1.6

Exports (USD billion)

4.4

4.3

5.8

4.7

4.9

Imports (USD billion)

6.7

6.4

5.2

3.8

3.4

Exports (annual variation in %)

-9.1

-2.5

35.1

-19.1

5.4

Imports (annual variation in %)

2.1

-5.8

-17.5

-27.5

-11.6

International Reserves (USD)

4.1

2.2

1.7

1.3

1.3

External Debt (% of GDP)

124

144

172

191

202

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