TOTAL TRADE TURNOVER: $7,090.0 MILLIONS
As of Oct 2015 the total cumulative trade turnover decreased by 21.9% (USD 1,990.0 millions) from that of the previous year and reached USD 7,090.0 millions. The decrease in the trade turnover was mainly due to the decrease in imports by USD 1,311.0 millions.
The structure of the trade flows with the neighboring trade partners is as following: (i) trade with PRC: 62.3% or USD 4,420.2 millions and (ii) trade with Russia: 12.7% or USD 901.1 millions. The trade volume between Mongolia and China decreased by 20.2% and the trade volume between Mongolia while Russia decreased by 34.4%.
TRADE BALANCE: $763.4 MILLION
As of Oct 2015, the cumulative trade balance improved by USD 632.0 millions from that of the previous year and reached USD 763.4 millions. During the reporting period even though the total exports decreased by 14.7% from that of the previous year, imports decreased by 29.3% from that of the previous year, thus the trade balance improved by USD 632.0 millions. The three-month moving average value of the difference between annual growth rates of exports and imports started to decline since the beginning of 2015. The high export growth rate during 2014 was due to the exports of copper concentrate and it started to stabilize.
TRADE BALANCE OF PAID TRADE FLOWS: $1,007.6 MILLION
The state of the trade balance of paid trade flows is one of the main variables that determines the pressure on the domestic foreign exchange market. As of Oct 2015, the trade balance of paid trade flows reached USD 1,007.6 millions. During the reporting period, paid imports decreased by 31.6%, and paid exports decreased by 15.4% from that of previous year.
TERMS OF TRADE: 1.408 (TEST ESTIMATION)
As of Oct 2015, terms of trade index (2012 base year) decreased by 9.5% from that of the previous year and reached 1.408. This decrease in the terms of trade is mainly attributed to the decrease in export price of copper concentrate, iron ore and crude oil.
EXPORT - COMPOSITION: 87% + 13%
The share of mineral exports in total exports maintained at the close level as the previous year. Exports of coal, copper concentrate, iron ore and concentrate and crude oil have a weight of nearly 77% of total exports and 84% of mining exports. In addition, these 4 products’ share in the mining exports decreased by 3.0 points from that of the previous year, share in the total exports decreased by 4.0 points.
GROWTH: -14.7%
As of Oct 2015, Mongolian export decreased by 14.7% from that of the previous year, which was mainly affected by decrease in commodity prices. Exports of non-monetary gold increased by 10%, which accounted for 1% in growth of mining export. On the other hand, coking coal, iron ore and crude oil export decreased by nearly 32%, 49% and 41% respectively, which accounted for 15% decrease in the growth of mining export.
CHANGES
As of Oct 2015, Mongolian export decreased by 679.0 million USD from that of the previous year.It is affected by the increase of export commodities’ quantities (USD 156.5 millions) and decrease in export commodities’ prices (USD 835.5 millions). Because of the increase in quantity of crude oil, non-monetary gold and copper concentrate export, mining export increased by 345 millions USD. On the other hand, because of decrease in prices of mineral exports, mining export declined by 750 million USD. Cashmere, cashmere products’ export decreased by 45 million USD, while other exports stayed at the same level.
WORLD MARKET PRICES FOR PRIMARY COMMODITIES
As of Oct 30 2015, gold price reached 1,142.1 USD, decreased by 2.6% from that of the previous year and decreased by 2.4% from that of the last month.
As of Oct 30 2015, copper and iron ore prices reached 5,129.5 USD and 50.0 USD. Copper price decreased by 0.9% from that of previous month and decreased by 24.1% from that of previous year. Iron ore price decreased by 10.7% from that of previous month and decreased by 36.7% from that of previous year.
IMPORT - COMPOSITION: 29% + 38% + 19%
As of Oct 2015, 29% of total imports were consumer goods, 38% were capital goods and 19% were fuels. Share of the capital goods in total imports decreased by 4% from that of the previous year, while the share of consumer goods import increased by 4%.
GROWTH: -29.3%
Mongolian imports decreased by 29.3% from that of the previous year. Main contributors of this decrease were capital goods decrease, which equals to 14% of the total decrease and fuel imports which equals to 8% of the total decrease. Capital goods and petroleum products imports decreased by 34% (641 millions USD) and 39% (376 millions USD) respectively. Thus total import decreased from that of the previous year.
BREAKDOWN
Main contributors of decrease in consumer goods import were both in durables and non-durables. Passenger cars import decreased by 29% (88 millions USD) and foods import decreased by 17% (71 millions USD).
Capital goods import decreased by 34% (641 millions USD) which was mainly contributed by 36% decrease in machinery, equipment and supplies (344 million USD). In addition, import of construction materials decreased by 38% (268 million USD) from that of previous year.
Intermediate goods and industrial materials import decreased by 14% (73 millions USD).
Fuels import decreased by 39% (376 millions USD). The border price of oil has been decreasing since the end of 2013. In parallel with global oil market price, it declined sharply during last half year.
IMPORT OF THE CONSUMER GOODS
The growth of consumer goods import, calculated by 3 month moving average method, is constantly declining. Even though, the import growth of non-durable consumer goods was relatively stable, it started to decline by bigger phase in last 6 months.
Source: www.mongolbank.mn
TOTAL TRADE TURNOVER: $7,090.0 MILLIONS
As of Oct 2015 the total cumulative trade turnover decreased by 21.9% (USD 1,990.0 millions) from that of the previous year and reached USD 7,090.0 millions. The decrease in the trade turnover was mainly due to the decrease in imports by USD 1,311.0 millions.
The structure of the trade flows with the neighboring trade partners is as following: (i) trade with PRC: 62.3% or USD 4,420.2 millions and (ii) trade with Russia: 12.7% or USD 901.1 millions. The trade volume between Mongolia and China decreased by 20.2% and the trade volume between Mongolia while Russia decreased by 34.4%.
TRADE BALANCE: $763.4 MILLION
As of Oct 2015, the cumulative trade balance improved by USD 632.0 millions from that of the previous year and reached USD 763.4 millions. During the reporting period even though the total exports decreased by 14.7% from that of the previous year, imports decreased by 29.3% from that of the previous year, thus the trade balance improved by USD 632.0 millions. The three-month moving average value of the difference between annual growth rates of exports and imports started to decline since the beginning of 2015. The high export growth rate during 2014 was due to the exports of copper concentrate and it started to stabilize.
TRADE BALANCE OF PAID TRADE FLOWS: $1,007.6 MILLION
The state of the trade balance of paid trade flows is one of the main variables that determines the pressure on the domestic foreign exchange market. As of Oct 2015, the trade balance of paid trade flows reached USD 1,007.6 millions. During the reporting period, paid imports decreased by 31.6%, and paid exports decreased by 15.4% from that of previous year.
TERMS OF TRADE: 1.408 (TEST ESTIMATION)
As of Oct 2015, terms of trade index (2012 base year) decreased by 9.5% from that of the previous year and reached 1.408. This decrease in the terms of trade is mainly attributed to the decrease in export price of copper concentrate, iron ore and crude oil.
EXPORT - COMPOSITION: 87% + 13%
The share of mineral exports in total exports maintained at the close level as the previous year. Exports of coal, copper concentrate, iron ore and concentrate and crude oil have a weight of nearly 77% of total exports and 84% of mining exports. In addition, these 4 products’ share in the mining exports decreased by 3.0 points from that of the previous year, share in the total exports decreased by 4.0 points.
GROWTH: -14.7%
As of Oct 2015, Mongolian export decreased by 14.7% from that of the previous year, which was mainly affected by decrease in commodity prices. Exports of non-monetary gold increased by 10%, which accounted for 1% in growth of mining export. On the other hand, coking coal, iron ore and crude oil export decreased by nearly 32%, 49% and 41% respectively, which accounted for 15% decrease in the growth of mining export.
CHANGES
As of Oct 2015, Mongolian export decreased by 679.0 million USD from that of the previous year.It is affected by the increase of export commodities’ quantities (USD 156.5 millions) and decrease in export commodities’ prices (USD 835.5 millions). Because of the increase in quantity of crude oil, non-monetary gold and copper concentrate export, mining export increased by 345 millions USD. On the other hand, because of decrease in prices of mineral exports, mining export declined by 750 million USD. Cashmere, cashmere products’ export decreased by 45 million USD, while other exports stayed at the same level.
WORLD MARKET PRICES FOR PRIMARY COMMODITIES
As of Oct 30 2015, gold price reached 1,142.1 USD, decreased by 2.6% from that of the previous year and decreased by 2.4% from that of the last month.
As of Oct 30 2015, copper and iron ore prices reached 5,129.5 USD and 50.0 USD. Copper price decreased by 0.9% from that of previous month and decreased by 24.1% from that of previous year. Iron ore price decreased by 10.7% from that of previous month and decreased by 36.7% from that of previous year.
IMPORT - COMPOSITION: 29% + 38% + 19%
As of Oct 2015, 29% of total imports were consumer goods, 38% were capital goods and 19% were fuels. Share of the capital goods in total imports decreased by 4% from that of the previous year, while the share of consumer goods import increased by 4%.
GROWTH: -29.3%
Mongolian imports decreased by 29.3% from that of the previous year. Main contributors of this decrease were capital goods decrease, which equals to 14% of the total decrease and fuel imports which equals to 8% of the total decrease. Capital goods and petroleum products imports decreased by 34% (641 millions USD) and 39% (376 millions USD) respectively. Thus total import decreased from that of the previous year.
BREAKDOWN
Main contributors of decrease in consumer goods import were both in durables and non-durables. Passenger cars import decreased by 29% (88 millions USD) and foods import decreased by 17% (71 millions USD).
Capital goods import decreased by 34% (641 millions USD) which was mainly contributed by 36% decrease in machinery, equipment and supplies (344 million USD). In addition, import of construction materials decreased by 38% (268 million USD) from that of previous year.
Intermediate goods and industrial materials import decreased by 14% (73 millions USD).
Fuels import decreased by 39% (376 millions USD). The border price of oil has been decreasing since the end of 2013. In parallel with global oil market price, it declined sharply during last half year.
IMPORT OF THE CONSUMER GOODS
The growth of consumer goods import, calculated by 3 month moving average method, is constantly declining. Even though, the import growth of non-durable consumer goods was relatively stable, it started to decline by bigger phase in last 6 months.
Source: www.mongolbank.mn